山龍ブログ - 誰にも文句言わせへんで!コラム

2019年05月   <<前月 次月>>
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
     
  • 時事
    財務省が海外向けに「日本の財政は健全である」と告知している文です
    国内で言っていることと真逆
    ふつう、これは「二枚舌」と言われます


    Summary of letter to the rating agencies



    Considering the strong fundamentals of the Japanese economy, the current ratings of JGBs are already too low and any further downgrading is unwarranted. Your explanations regarding rating decisions are mostly qualitative in nature and lack objective criteria, which invite questions about the larger issue of the reliability of ratings itself.

    Clarification and elaboration, in concrete and/or quantitative terms, of rating decisions are thus required on such points as:


    1)


    In the case of industrialized countries such as the U.S. and Japan, defaulting on local-currency denominated debt is unimaginable. What kind of risk is exactly contemplated as "default"?


    2)


    Ratings of sovereign bonds should not be assessed solely by fiscal indicators, but comprehensively and in the broader context of the economy at large, inter alia economic fundamentals. For example, how are the following factors evaluated:



    a)


    From a macro-economic viewpoint, Japan has the largest savings surplus in the world.



    b)


    The above enables us to finance most of the debt domestically and stably at very low interest rates.



    c)


    Japan has the largest current account surplus, is the largest creditor country, and has the largest foreign exchange reserves in the world.

    3)


    Consistency is questionable comparing various sovereign ratings. How would the following be explained, e.g.?:



    a)


    A country that has a per-capita GDP of about 1/3 of Japan and suffers from a large current account deficit is, in fact, rated higher than Japan.



    b)


    The U.K. foreign-currency bond was rated AAA in 1978, only two years after the sterling crisis and Fund borrowing in 1976. U.S. Treasury bonds maintained AAA status in the mid-80’s when the sustainability of the U.S. twin deficits was suspect.



    c)


    Should JGBs be downgraded to single-A, this would assign Japan to the same rating as emerging market countries with wide gaps in economic fundamentals.

    The above questioning in no way implies that the Japanese government is oblivious of the need to carry out reform. The government is, in fact, implementing in earnest various structural reforms, including fiscal consolidation. At the same time, market participants require more objective and transparent rating methodologies and rationales.



    | author : 山龍 | 12:01 AM |